On October 3–4, 2025, the Czech Republic will hold parliamentary elections that carry weight well beyond the country’s borders. The vote comes as Prague faces escalating hybrid threats from Russia – from drone and airspace violations to sabotage of critical infrastructure, cyberattacks, and coordinated disinformation campaigns. This makes the election not just about forming the next government, but about how firmly Czechia will defend its security within the framework of the EU and NATO.
Babiš and the Debate on Ties to Russia
At the center of attention is opposition leader Andrej Babiš, billionaire businessman and head of the ANO movement. Known for his Eurosceptic rhetoric and signals of sympathy toward Vladimir Putin, Babiš has long been a polarizing figure. Revelations from the Pandora Papers suggested that he may have cooperated with the communist-era secret police StB under the codename “Bureš” in the 1980s. While Czech lustration laws formally bar former StB collaborators from holding public office, this was never applied to Babiš—his complete file reportedly disappeared from the archives.
Babiš’s business record also fuels controversy. As prime minister, he was accused of channeling EU subsidies into his conglomerate Agrofert. In the current campaign, his rhetoric on Russia’s war in Ukraine is more restrained, but he has announced that he would end Prague’s initiative to supply ammunition to Kyiv if returned to power. His critical remarks on the EU and NATO raise doubts about his reliability as a foreign policy partner.
Russian Influence in the Digital Sphere
Just weeks before the election, the Czech firm Online Risk Labs exposed a network of around 300 TikTok accountspushing pro-Russian content and openly supporting ANO, SPD, and Stačilo!. These accounts justified Russia’s war against Ukraine, discredited the EU and NATO, and promoted far-right narratives. With weekly reach between five and nine million views—exceeding the combined impact of major parties’ official channels—the scale of the operation is striking. Its effect is amplified by TikTok’s popularity in Czechia, where about a quarter of the population uses the platform regularly.
Ukrainian Refugees in the Political Debate
Another defining theme of the campaign is the integration of Ukrainian refugees. Right-wing parties blame them for rising living costs. Official figures, however, tell a different story: in the first half of 2025, refugees contributed 15 billion CZK in taxes and contributions, while state expenditures amounted to just 7.6 billion CZK. According to Labour Minister Marian Jurečka, since 2023, refugee contributions have consistently outweighed government costs.
Coalition Possibilities and Power Options
To govern, ANO would need at least 101 out of 200 seats in parliament. If it falls short, possible coalitions would include SPD, Stačilo!, or Motoristé—all skeptical of EU policies, opposing full-scale support for Ukraine, and calling for “pragmatic” relations with Russia, China, and Iran. In sharp contrast, the governing coalition Spolu emphasizes stronger ties with Western partners and commitment to EU and NATO priorities.
Innovations in Voting
A major innovation in this election is the introduction of postal voting. Targeted at young citizens, people with disabilities, Czechs living abroad, and so-called “weekend commuters,” the reform aims to modernize the process and increase turnout. Crucially, up to 600,000 Czechs living abroad could now play a decisive role in shaping the outcome.
Why It Matters for Europe
For Prague, the October vote is about more than who leads the next government. It is a test of whether Czechia will remain firmly anchored in the Euro-Atlantic community—or drift toward a more ambivalent course under populist influence. For Europe, it is a signal of resilience against Russian hybrid threats and a measure of how united EU and NATO members remain in defending their security.Read more on Weltstimme
